Bitcoin’s brutal November slide—which saw the cryptocurrency drop roughly 30% from its October peak above $125,000—has crypto skeptics declaring victory once again. But according to John D’Agostino, head of strategy at Coinbase Institutional, this selloff reveals something very different from what headlines suggest: a maturing market undergoing healthy correction rather than fundamental breakdown.
Speaking during a recent appearance on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast, D’Agostino offered a framework for understanding Bitcoin’s volatility that challenges conventional wisdom about risk, market cycles, and what actually drives cryptocurrency prices.
The Commodities Veteran’s Perspective on Crypto Volatility
D’Agostino brings an unusual background to crypto analysis. Before joining Coinbase, he served as head of strategy for the New York Mercantile Exchange, where he helped transition floor traders from physical pit cards to electronic systems. That experience witnessing massive volatility in natural gas options gave him a perspective most crypto analysts lack.
His core insight challenges how investors think about risk itself: volatility and risk aren’t synonymous. According to D’Agostino’s analysis, markets consistently prefer highly volatile assets that trend upward over stable assets that decline. The critical question isn’t whether Bitcoin swings wildly in price—it’s whether those swings occur around an upward trajectory.
This distinction matters enormously for retirement planning. When safe assets can’t beat inflation, holding cash becomes the riskiest strategy possible. Intelligent risk modeling becomes essential rather than optional.
What’s Actually Driving the Current Selloff
Bitcoin has plummeted by nearly a third since its recent peak in October, with the total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropping more than $1 trillion, but D’Agostino identifies three specific factors rather than fundamental weakness:
Market Exhaustion: Bitcoin experienced massive gains leading into October. Mathematically, 100% returns every six months create unsustainable trajectories. Some profit-taking becomes inevitable regardless of long-term fundamentals.
OG Diversification: Long-time Bitcoin holders who purchased at $10, $100, or even 10 cents viewed the $100,000 milestone as a natural diversification point. These large holders—often called “whales”—began shifting holdings toward institutional buyers and ETF platforms. This represents wealth distribution rather than market rejection.
Regulatory Resolution: The U.S. government shutdown created an interesting dynamic. Bitcoin’s value proposition as a hedge against excessive money printing actually weakens during shutdowns, when government spending freezes. Now that shutdown concerns have resolved, D’Agostino expects renewed interest in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.
The Market Structure Indicators That Matter
D’Agostino emphasized that Coinbase’s unique position provides visibility into market health that price alone can’t reveal. He tracks three critical metrics:
Open Interest Stability: When CME and Coinbase futures open interest remains stable or grows despite price declines, it signals traders are repositioning rather than exiting permanently. A truly breaking market shows rapidly declining open interest alongside falling prices. That hasn’t happened.
Active Wallet Count: The number of active Bitcoin wallets remains roughly unchanged from three months ago, indicating sustained participation despite volatility.
Market Breadth: The diversity of market participants continues expanding—institutional players, retail investors, ETF buyers, hedgers, and speculators all remain active. This breadth provides liquidity depth that earlier Bitcoin cycles lacked.
These structural indicators suggest temporary exhaustion rather than fundamental deterioration.
Why This Selloff Differs from 2022
November is shaping up to be Bitcoin’s worst month since the 2022 collapse of Terra and FTX, yet D’Agostino sees crucial differences. The 2022 crash involved systemic failures, fraud, and counterparty risk that shook confidence in crypto infrastructure itself. The current selloff lacks those elements entirely.
Instead, several structurally positive developments have emerged during the decline:
- Citibank and JPMorgan announced plans to leverage stablecoins at significant scale
- The Czech National Bank announced plans to become the first Eurozone country to purchase Bitcoin for its treasury
- Harvard‘s endowment revealed it holds more Bitcoin than gold
- The IRS provided clarifying rules for cryptocurrency taxation
These developments represent exactly the institutional adoption that creates long-term value, even as short-term prices fluctuate.
The Apple Analogy: Understanding Fundamental Value
D’Agostino offered a simple framework that cuts through market noise: “If I like apples, I don’t like them less because they’re on sale.”
This principle applies directly to Bitcoin. If you believed in Bitcoin’s value proposition at $100,000—as a scarce digital asset, inflation hedge, and decentralized store of value—those fundamentals haven’t changed at $88,000. The asset is simply available at a discount.
Conversely, if you never believed in Bitcoin’s value proposition, current prices simply give skeptics a temporary platform. The question isn’t whether Bitcoin is down 30%; it’s whether the reasons you would own it have fundamentally changed.
The Critical Mistake Retail Investors Make
When asked about investors who purchased near Bitcoin’s recent peak, D’Agostino emphasized dollar-cost averaging as the essential strategy for any volatile asset. Market timing consistently fails, even among the most sophisticated hedge fund managers he’s worked with over 20 years.
The worst response to buying at a peak is abandoning a systematic investment plan. Research shows definitively that inconsistent market participation—rather than entry timing—destroys long-term returns. Investors who entered at unfortunate prices but continue regular purchases will outperform those who attempt to perfectly time entries and exits.
What Would Change His Mind
D’Agostino outlined specific market structure changes that would signal genuine concern:
Narrowing Market Breadth: If the diversity of market participants begins contracting—fewer institutions, declining ETF interest, reduced retail participation—that would indicate deteriorating fundamentals.
Declining Open Interest: Sustained drops in futures open interest would confirm participants are exiting rather than repositioning.
Loss of Belief in Core Value Proposition: If evidence emerged that Bitcoin’s scarcity, decentralization, or utility as a store of value were compromised, that would warrant fundamental reassessment.
None of these conditions currently exist. Market structure remains robust despite price volatility.
The 2026 Catalyst: Regulatory Clarity
Looking forward, D’Agostino identified the Clarity Act as potentially the most significant catalyst for Bitcoin’s next leg up. Clear regulatory frameworks remove the uncertainty that constrains institutional allocation, even when those institutions believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
The Solana ETF becoming the biggest ETF launch of the year demonstrates that demand exists—regulatory clarity simply allows that demand to flow through traditional investment vehicles. Once comprehensive crypto regulation passes, likely in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, institutional hesitation should diminish significantly.
The Elegant On-Ramp Problem
D’Agostino made a fascinating observation about crypto skepticism: at this point, it’s evolved from genuine intellectual disagreement into resentment. Many prominent critics who’ve been publicly bearish on Bitcoin for a decade face an uncomfortable reality—they’ve been colossally wrong about one of the decade’s best-performing assets.
This creates a dilemma. Admitting error requires intellectual humility that’s difficult for public figures whose reputations depend on being right. Doubling down allows them to avoid that admission, at least until retirement.
The crypto community needs to provide “elegant on-ramps” for former skeptics—ways to acknowledge Bitcoin’s success without humiliating those who doubted it. Not everyone needs to become an evangelical Bitcoin proponent. But when a mathematical formula inspires Thanksgiving dinner arguments more heated than debates about the Pythagorean theorem, something’s gone wrong with the discourse.
The 10-Year Vision: Bitcoin for Everyone
D’Agostino’s long-term vision for Bitcoin centers on accessibility rather than speculation. He wants individuals anywhere in the world to check their smartphones and feel excited about their economic future because they hold scarce, immutable assets alongside traditional investments.
Combined with blockchain technology providing seamless access to U.S. capital markets, this creates a powerful democratization of wealth-building. The best pension funds already view dollar-cost averaging into the U.S. economy as the optimal long-term inflation hedge. Adding Bitcoin to that strategy improves outcomes further.
The dream isn’t Bitcoin replacing traditional finance—it’s Bitcoin complementing it, accessible to anyone with $5 of savings and a smartphone.
Current Market Reality: Where Bitcoin Stands Today
Bitcoin currently trades around $99,887, recovering from recent lows but still well below October highs. The intense selling pressure that weighed on Bitcoin in recent weeks appears to be easing, though uncertainty remains about whether this marks a true bottom or temporary stabilization.
Market experts attribute the decline to a wider pullback in the stock market and signs of a potential pause in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The correlation between Bitcoin and AI-linked tech stocks has intensified, with both markets experiencing synchronized selling pressure.
The Takeaway for Investors
D’Agostino’s analysis suggests the current selloff represents a healthy correction in a maturing market rather than fundamental breakdown. Several factors support this interpretation:
- Market structure indicators remain stable despite price declines
- Institutional adoption continues accelerating through the volatility
- The diversity of market participants keeps expanding
- No systemic failures or fraud have emerged
- Regulatory progress continues despite price weakness
For investors who believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition, current prices represent opportunity rather than danger. For skeptics unconvinced by Bitcoin’s fundamentals, no price would change that assessment.
The key question isn’t whether Bitcoin will experience more volatility—it certainly will. The question is whether that volatility occurs around an asset with genuine long-term value and expanding institutional adoption.
Based on the indicators Coinbase monitors daily, D’Agostino’s answer remains clearly affirmative.
What to Watch Next
Several developments could signal Bitcoin’s next directional move:
- Regulatory Progress: Any movement on the Clarity Act would provide significant catalyst
- ETF Flows: Changes in Bitcoin ETF inflows/outflows indicate institutional sentiment shifts
- Market Structure: Watch open interest and active wallet counts for participation trends
- Macroeconomic Factors: Federal Reserve policy and inflation data affect Bitcoin’s inflation-hedge narrative
- Institutional Announcements: Corporate treasury Bitcoin purchases signal conviction despite volatility
The volatility isn’t disappearing. But for investors who understand the difference between volatility and risk, current market conditions may represent exactly the opportunity that separates long-term winners from those who only invest when prices feel comfortable.
As D’Agostino learned in commodities markets years ago: the best opportunities rarely feel good in the moment.